VZCZCXRO4720
OO RUEHTRO
DE RUEHTRO #0017 0121421
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
O P 121421Z JAN 09
FM AMEMBASSY TRIPOLI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 4309
INFO RUEHEG/AMEMBASSY CAIRO PRIORITY 1374
RUEHTU/AMEMBASSY TUNIS PRIORITY 0731
RUEHAS/AMEMBASSY ALGIERS PRIORITY 0863
RUEHRB/AMEMBASSY RABAT PRIORITY 0806
RUEHFR/AMEMBASSY PARIS PRIORITY 0667
RUEHLO/AMEMBASSY LONDON PRIORITY 0980
RUEHTRO/AMEMBASSY TRIPOLI 4832

C O N F I D E N T I A L TRIPOLI 000017 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NEA/MAG FOR JOHNSON; PARIS FOR WALLER; LONDON FOR TSOU 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL:  1/11/2019 
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM LY
SUBJECT: AL-QADHAFI SUGGESTS LIBYAN ELECTIONS MAY BE IN THE OFFING 
 
REF: 08 TRIPOLI 227  

CLASSIFIED BY: Gene A. Cretz, Ambassador, U.S. Embassy - Tripoli, U.S. Dept of State. REASON: 1.4 (b), (d) 

¶1. (C) At the end of a televised meeting on December 28 to discuss Libya's reaction to the commencement of Israeli military strikes against Gaza, Leader Muammar al-Qadhafi instructed that television and recording equipment be switched off and announced to the assembled group of political, military and security officials that Libya was entering "a new political period" and would hold elections for "some key offices (NFI) soon". (Note: Post's source for information about the meeting is a member of the Revolutionary Committees' (RevComm) branch in the western city of Zuwara, who is a childhood friend of a member of our locally-engaged staff.  End note.)  The audience included the Prime Minister-equivalent, the National Security Adviser, the chiefs of staff for each of Libya's military branches, senior leaders from the External Security Organization and Internal Security Organization, key RevComm figures (including the important RevComm Office of Communications), several General People's Committee secretaries (minister-equivalents) and various representatives of the Basic and General People's Congresses.  Al-Qadhafi offered no specific information about the nature of the positions that were to be filled by the elections, or about who would be candidates for them.  

¶2. (C)  In a move that reportedly prompted quite a stir, al-Qadhafi also said he intended to invite international monitors to observe the elections.  Our contact expressed particular surprise that al-Qadhafi had called for international election monitors and was frankly skeptical that such an offer would be tendered.  Al-Qadhafi asked that the meeting's participants help facilitate "the transition" and that no one oppose the elections, which he represented as a "natural part" of the Jamahiriya's process of political development. Addressing concerns about potential participation by political opposition elements,  al-Qadhafi cautioned that those who "might seek to misuse the process" would be closely monitored and "dealt with later".  Post's contact offered that most of the meeting's participants came away with the impression that Saif al-Islam al-Qadhafi, son of Muammar al-Qadhafi and Chairman of the Qadhafi Development Foundation, was organizing the elections and that the call for cooperation was intended to minimize opposition to his efforts.  Although Saif al-Islam was never directly mentioned by name, some participants, including our contact, believed that he himself could be a candidate for an elected position.  

¶3. (C) Comment: The Jamahiriya currently holds de facto elections to select members of the pyramid scheme of Popular Committees, Basic People's Committees, Basic People's Congresses and General People's Congresses.  More transparent and direct elections for key government positions and international election monitors are issues Saif al-Islam has raised before in the context of his annual Youth Forum addresses and, more recently, during his visit to the U.S. in November-December. That said, elections are a sensitive issue in a regime in which "domestic issues" are broadly defined and in which opposition to perceived external interference in internal matters is intense. "Steadfastness" against foreign powers and their perceived machinations has been a source of legitimacy for al-Qadhafi's regime for decades; acceding to international monitoring of Libyan elections would likely be seen as a violation of revolutionary principles by at least some old guard elements. Al-Qadhafi's pre-emptive request to key regime figures likely represents a calculated gambit to temper opposition.  If near-term elections are in fact being planned, it could help explain why the General People's Congress (GPC) session notionally scheduled for January 10-13 has been delayed.  MFA and NSC contacts told us in late December that schedules of senior regime figures like National Security Adviser Muatassim al-Qadhafi were being built around the January 10-13 window.  In typical Jamahiriya fashion, dates for the GPC were never publicly announced (despite the fact that it is ostensibly a public event that all citizens may attend) and no reasons have been given for its delay.  There have been rumors that the inability of minister-equivalents to agree on plans to implement government restructuring and privatization in line with reforms Muammar al-Qadhafi called for in his March 2008 GPC address (reftel) are to blame for the postponement.  The exercise would become exponentially more difficult if al-Qadhafi, whose predilection for grandiose political theater is well-known, intends to time elections to coincide with the upcoming session of the GPC.  End comment.  
CRETZ