VZCZCXRO6586
RR RUEHROV
DE RUEHEG #2299/01 3491457
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
R 151457Z DEC 09
FM AMEMBASSY CAIRO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 4451
INFO RUEHXK/ARAB ISRAELI COLLECTIVE
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CAIRO 002299 
 
SIPDIS 
 
FOR NEA/ELA, DRL/NESCA AND INR/B 
NSC FOR AGUIRRE 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/15/2029 
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PTER KDEM EG
SUBJECT: NDP REFORMER SEES LIMITED OPPORTUNITIES FOR PROGRESS REF: A. CAIRO 2283 B. CAIRO 2166 C. CAIRO 1850 D. CAIRO 1181 Classified By: Economic-Political Minister-Counselor Donald A. Blome for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).
1.KEY POINTS -- (C) On December 10, ruling National Democratic Party (NDP) insider XXXXXXXXXXXX told us that party reformers lack the influence to press President Mubarak to make significant political changes before the coming elections. -- (C) He expected that due to the Interior Ministry's powerful influence, President Mubarak will extend the State of Emergency before it expires in May 2010. -- (C) XXXXXXXXXXXX was certain Mubarak will run for another term in 2011, and he anticipated that the 2010 parliamentary elections would be similar to previous contests, except that Muslim Brotherhood candidates would not win as many seats. -- (C) He hoped for increased domestic monitoring efforts in 2010.

2.(C) Comment: XXXXXXXXXXXX, a confidante of presidential son Gamal Mubarak and XXXXXXXXXXXX, is a party insider who has advocated for the NCHR's reform agenda on civil liberties, freedom of expression and political pluralism. While in conversations over the past six months he was enthusiastic about his advocacy for reform (refs C,D), he now seems resigned to more limited prospects, possibly in reaction to the lack of focus on political reform at the recent NDP conference (ref B). End comment.

3.(C) In a December 10 meeting, XXXXXXXXXXXX acknowledged to us that the NDP conference's focus on socio-economic development, not political reform, illustrated the influence of party members who believe that political changes before the 2010 and 2011 elections will not help the party. He told us that the "minority" group of NDP reformers does not have the "critical mass" to pressure President Mubarak to enact political reforms. XXXXXXXXXXXX told us that while NDP reformers have a vision for change, implementation will only come "sometime in the future."

4.(C) According to XXXXXXXXXXXX, the Interior Ministry is accustomed to wielding broad powers through the State of Emergency, and will not accept more limited authorities. He believes the MOI has convinced Mubarak that it only uses State of Emergency provisions in limited instances on terrorism issues, but that these authorities are vital. While XXXXXXXXXXXX has long advocated for a lifting of the State of Emergency, he now expects Mubarak to extend the State of Emergency before it expires in May 2010. (Note: The strong influence of the Interior Ministry on Mubarak is a common theme we hear from reformers. End note.)

5.(C) XXXXXXXXXXXX regretted that reformers "missed an opportunity" in 2007 to pass a constitutional amendment on presidential term limits, in addition to the other amendments enacted. Such an amendment, he argued, would have had a powerful effect. He was certain that President Mubarak will run for another term in 2011.

6.(C) XXXXXXXXXXXX stressed that he continues to press within the party for international monitors for the 2010 elections. He hoped to at least expand the domestic monitoring effort, in comparison to past elections. XXXXXXXXXXXX said that the NCHR, of which he is a member, is working with the GOE to expand the number of NGOs that will be licensed for monitoring, but is facing resistance from the Interior Ministry. XXXXXXXXXXXX cautioned against expecting "major changes" in the administration of the upcoming elections, as the GOE's political orientation remains the same. He anticipated that the GOE would not allow Muslim Brotherhood candidates to win the number of seats they did in 2010.

7.(C) Biographical Note: XXXXXXXXXXXX Scobey